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The Amazing Peso Appreciation - John Mangun
3.13.2006

Following recent events in Manila, which on all indictations were seemingly bad for the peso-dollar, is it not strange to see the peso performing better than usual?

Most people with barely a rudimentary knowledge of economics maybe misled by certain economic claims of the government officials and unfounded analyses on TV, me included.

While it may not be an official policy of the government to create disinformation, shouldn't citizens have right to accurate information?

Unfortunately, diplomats or not have ways to circumvent that by saying half-truths - which while not really true at all, are not exactly false either. I'm posting here an excellently written piece by John Mangun explaining the seemingly amazing gain in value that the Philippines peso has been showing in the past weeks. Superbly written, and yes, most amazing of all, it's purely economics, strictly no politics:

Date: March 13, 2006
Author: John Mangun
BUSINESS MIRROR
From his Column " Outside The Box"

"The Amazing Peso Appreciation"


The Philippine Peso is a very `minor' currency in that there is virtually no trading in the international currency markets. All trading, that is the buying and selling of the Peso that determines the exchange rate, is done right here through the local Philippine dealing system. The free market should price the Peso at a level that would create equilibrium between demand for dollars and desire for Pesos.

A further aspect of a currency exchange rate is that, if the market is relatively free as through the Philippine dealing system, short-term fluctuations mean little in the broad scheme of things. Even what might be considered a trend over several months as we have witnessed, is no indicator of either long-term investor sentiment or of economic growth and stability.

Regarding the thought that investor sentiment is found in the Peso rate, that idea is simply not true. The administration can look to a rising Peso as an indicator of support either personally or of its handling of recent events, however, that idea is false.

While it is true that currency rates can reflect short terms delight or despair over a government and its policies, that does not hold true in the short run. For example, many years ago when George Bush 1, fell sick at a Japanese state dinner, the dollar immediately dropped. When he was found to be healthy, the dollar rose in price and the speculators made a lot of profit. Nothing of economic significance had changed in those few hours. It was only as if some speculators were betting Bush was going to die; others betting he was going to live and the US Dollar market was a place to gamble.

The reason the world currency market can be a type of casino is that a large amount of the trading in major currencies is speculative in that the traders have no desire to take physical possession of or use the foreign money that they purchase.

The same is not true for the Philippines. The amount of speculative purchases in this country is almost non-existent. You do not use the Peso to "bet" on or against the Administration. This is because, essentially, the Bangko Sentral can control all
transactions. In addition, in the international markets, traders can buy and sell directly to each other, whereas here, all transactions are coursed through the banking system. Finally, the market is so small, the BSP so large in comparison, and trading controlled locally, that if, say a George Soros wanted to crush the value of the Peso as he did in Malaysia a decade ago, the BSP could intervene not only through buying Pesos, but by stopping Peso trading, and Soros' trading intentions would be thwarted.

The rise in the value of the Peso in the last quarter of 2005 was caused by legitimate demand for Pesos as increased remittances through the banking system created a true demand for Pesos and free market trading reflected that demand in a higher valued Peso.

However to believe the recent Peso appreciation reflects real Peso demand or,
as the administration tells us, foreign investor confidence is to assume two wildly improbable scenarios.

The first is that a group of foreign investors, in New York or Tokyo, viewed the recent events and concluded that they should immediately buy US$50 million worth of Pesos and open a call center because they are so happy the President is still in power and are pleased with the way that the Administration handled the situation. Sorry, real business life does not work that way.

The other false scenario would be that these same investors, although not wanting to
build a call center, decided to buy US$50 million worth of Pesos as a "sign of support" for the Arroyo administration. I have been involved the foreign currency markets for almost thirty years as a professional trader and currency analyst and I guarantee you both scenarios, as are the administration's pronouncements, pure foreign exchange fantasy.

Understand clearly that I am not making any implication that the BSP is manipulating the value of the Peso. The BSP is not under any circumstances, even trying to control the Peso rate to make it go higher to supposedly make the Arroyo Administration look good. They know better. If the BSP were doing that, then people like Soros could and would come into the market to take advantage of the situation. Currency traders are like large sharks that attack at the first smell of blood. And there is no juicer fresh meat for traders than a central bank, especially a central bank with only US$20 billion in foreign currency reserves, which is trying to control currency prices. Remember Soros took on and beat the Bank of England and Malaysia's Bank Negara. Our central bank would merely be an easily digested finger food if the BSP gave currency traders the signal that they wanted to battle.

What the BSP has done is to use its monopolistic power to force Peso buyers to accept
fewer Pesos for their dollars. Exporters that have received an overseas payment of
US$100,000 are forced to buy Pesos at 51 not 54. They have no other choice. It is not that there is any greater demand for Pesos, which would normally account for an increase in the value of the currency. It is simply that the BSP has temporarily `fixed' or set the price to their desired level.

Isn't this manipulation you might ask? No, because a `stronger' Peso creates demand from the importer side of the economy. Imagine how much the oil companies favor a stronger Peso as it reduces their oil import costs. As they see the Peso rising, they are encouraged to `help' the BSP push the Peso value higher.

Allow me to illustrate this idea by a silly example. You give your driver a P10,000 a month salary increase, but he must pay for the all the gasoline. Give your maid P20,000 but she buys the family's food. Now you can tell everybody how rich you are because you can afford to pay your household employees so much.

The same is true for the Philippine economy. Importers will lose a little; exporters may gain a little. The big winner of a higher Peso is the government is it reduces their obscene debt burden. The idea is that everybody wins, or failing that, maybe at least nobody loses. . . . much. . . . sort of.

---

What's eating Jardine Davies? Hmmm... Get's me to thinking huh! What do you think batinktink? If the last paragraph were true, how much of truth is there in hyper-wage theory as a solution to mystery of the Philippine Economy?

Labels: Economics, Local, Philippines, US Politics

posted by Jdavies @ 3/13/2006, ,

Political Summit Whoah!
5.17.2005

News is hot on a political summit being the solution to the countries problems. Rainbow Coalition again? Hehehe... What can I say this has been done before. I wonder what it'll do now. But benefit of the doubt. If there's any gain here it's only the temporary sense of peace, elbow rubbing and politicking, possibly mileage and pogi points for organizers, unified party or lesser opposition for the majority and a semblance by the public that something is being done. Not mention a sense of control by the incumbent. If you can't make everybody listen you're a lame duck president, right? So this is all politics. Good move in that sense.

However, posing it as the solution to the ills plaguing the Philippines? Hehehehehe! I don't think so. What? You think I'm dreaming I can't read between the lines?! Come on... there's more to problems than this. But ok, let's see how it works... Allow me to organize it then...

If it was up to me I'l make these rules and have every delegate sign it:

1. No one is allowed to get out until everything is solved. You seal the room with wax and make the participants eat only water and crackers so that our already frugal budget is not compromised. I wouldn't want another expense on a deficit year. Make them signal a new pope with black smoke... wait... that's a different thing hehehe...
2. Issues at hand are already set; schedules must be followed to the very minute detail. Every delegate has advocacies ready on paper... If someone breaks a promise you cut off his tongue. Nice!
3. Include academicians and experts in the discussions for godsakes!
4. I smell con-con coming up. List all the changes you want before you mess it up will you?
5. Have consistency of vision. Think again - Run this country like a corporation - Do we even have a MISSION and VISION that ties every department up in order to sell the country and improve its economy?
6. Make that MISSION /VISION easily implementable by any party that wins the next election. If there's anything that sucks its lack of continuity. Ask any Project Manager or Business Development expert... He'll tell you the same shit!
7. Demand of speakers brevity when they speak. Too many politicians beat around the bush! Get to the point and hit the nail in the head! Where are the real orators in this land? Where have they gone?
8. Let the Media cover it and make them pay for the coverage --- proper accounting ok? This time around, any government related news should have a charge ... highest bidder wins the coverage for all news ... let's see what happens to the quality of news on TV! Hahaha... I'm a crazy dictator am I? That's why I am not president.
9. Set required reading for the delegates. An exam follows after. Decs will be in charge. Highest score is the new president. Those who mess up gives up their seat or thrown into the mouth of Mayon Volcano. Setup lie detectors on mics.
10. Get victims of injustice claimants as volunteers for the convention. Or perhaps idealist people at the least... Let them zap sleeping congressmen with 10000 volts on their lips! Violators of this agreement will be punished at the fullest extent of the law... yadiyadiyada!

After all is said and done, follow the fucking plan. Humiliate those that will fail. Winners get free TV time. Everyone else, enjoy the sarcasm and laugh at the weight of the problems of the country in your hands.

Labels: Economics, Local, Philippines, US Politics

posted by Jdavies @ 5/17/2005, ,

Inside the Jeepney #2
4.19.2005

Yet another Jeepney Poem. How political? You judge:

Inside the Jeepney #2
a.k.a. Jeepney Amnesia

The world here is shielded from the outside.
Peace between sighs are punctuated
by the promised calm of salvation
that is home.

Nobody complains against the bumpy ride.
Afterall, a drowsy drive is a national passion;
Grief, an easy abandon. You look around,
and there, you are not alone.

Amazingly, politics is never a passenger.
Everybody else looks out for each other;
The driver, your benevolent dictator sits
on a throne that nobody else desires.
How many generations have you waited for him?
And yet here he is, guarding everybody's redemption.
Somehow the real meaning of community
is proper within these confines.
Funny how people will not steal
your cash nor your pride.
Nobody will blame you for a bad tie.
Fatigue is everybody's addiction,
afterall; Work, work and work,
the expected predilection.
In essence, the jeepney economy
will never be in the red line.

Therefore
this is most ideal.

When you pay respects
to the driver, however,
and you bid a determined goodbye
The ironic 'Para', hits you.
Suddenly it's over.

Fantasy stops, time scuttles.

Your descent is prophetic.
You alight with a sting of truth knowing
that the real plight is beyond these walls
It compounds you, yet you accept it.
You acquire Jeepney Amnesia
when your feet touch the ground
and somehow the only reminder
of a paradise lost
is your volatile existence.

The next day, and everyday thereafter,
you dream about the perfect journey
that does not exist.

You hail yet another jeepney,
bestow dictatorship on another driver,
and forget the lessons of the previous day.

Labels: Economics

posted by Jdavies @ 4/19/2005, ,

More on Brain Drain Economics
10.28.2004

I got an email from a reader asking if the health service provider's inherrent quality to create demand is still true:

"What I learned in Health Systems Admin. At JHU back in 1976 was that the health industry is unique in the sense that it doesn’t follow the law of supply and demand strictly since health service providers (doctors, hospitals, allied health providers) can create their own demand for their services. Is this still true?"

While I believe that to a certain point demand-creation is possible, I advised that this is no longer true at large nowadays. In fact, even suppliers can create artificial demand, and artificial supply in b2b and online transactions. This is possible in cases of ghost stock or faked inventory - and therefore artificial supply, and say, spam bots creating requests for similar products on the hundreds - where in fact there was only one originating demand trying to fish for the lowest price in the market. Both situations are examples of manipulation that can happen in the online marketplace since online markets are not controlled and restricted.

Demand Creation over New Technologies

I urged that purchasing power remains the restriction to any inherrent demand creation quality of health service providers. While the effect maybe negligible in countries where purchasing power is high and thus almost irrelevant, in a country such as the Philippines where inflation is high and purchasing power is low, any creation of demand to dictate higher prices will be met with negative market reaction. Perhaps demand creation can only happen in cases of new medical technologies, new surgical procedures, and pioneering methodologies of treatment --- in as much as any new product with unique features and a captive niche has. But using this demand to command price is only unique to this segment of the market. In fact, even in this segment, if demand is used to increase price purchasing power will still step in to curb the aggregate income of the doctor. Consider why not all AIDS and HIV patients go to the more expensive cures, or why generic brands are used as substitutes.

More concretely, I gave the following example:

If say a doctor will be situated in an impoverished town, and will be the only doctor, he can command a high price for the services up to a certain point only. Demand comes naturally by virtue of the need for his services. This is to be differentiated from demand creation from an innovation.

Slowly increasing his prices geometrically say monthly by P100 ,will mean a less and less total earnings for him after a certain point. If this is graphed, say at first he has 10 clients each charged at P100 , his total would be P1000 per month.

Raising it to P200 per session per client would mean his total would be projected at P2000 a month... However, it will mean losing 2 customers beyond that purchasing power. His net increase in aggregate revenue will then be only P800 instead of 100% additional. (P1800 total) raising it further it will be P300 per client but for only 5 clients.Therefore his net is now down to only P500 increase.

If there is no competition in that barrio, he can effective raise it to 1000 per client. But by that time his aggregate income would be only P1000 only --- conservatively from only the richest person in the barrio only --- his last remaining client.

Any raise would be detrimental to his income, and would result to less and less income or possibly even no more customers for him. Notice that I have not advised about the quality of service that isprovided. If there will be less and less doctors in the Philippines, the doctor-client ratio will be higher and we can assume a decline in service quality and the increase in the use of alternative medicines and self-made home remedies, not including those who will opt not to see the doctors. Both factors effectively lessens the income of the doctors who will stay in this situation.

On Skilled Workers

I have used this same model to prove the failed logic of the P. Sto. Tomas' statement in the case of other service providers such as engineers and skilled workers. Allow me to quote from my comments:

Following her logic does Sto.Tomas mean to say engineers will have an eventual increase similar to the doctors --- because of limited supply of their services? In fact we can expect an encouragement of the brain drain trend because local companies will offer lower and lower bargained wages to the limited number of people who will be left in the Philippines. Thinking that a low-paying job is better than no job at all - they will humbly accept. Until eventually the ceiling of their acceptable wages goes on a downtrend!

I don’t think an economic model is needed for this one this is already happening accross many sectors when there is a huge unemployment rate and a big gap in frictionally unemployed (due to high resignation in out sourced biz process industries, call centers etc...) and the prevailing structural unemployment. In other words she’s dead wrong. If I was an eco 101 prof and she’s my student, she gets an F.

I think the academe needs to be more involved in the government. This is eco 101 and yet our officials are failing miserably! I wonder how much better this country will be run if we are to follow the many disertations and research our universities have been making... I would bet an extremely conservative 1% of those research is worth implementing!

Brain Drain Positives

Will brain drain ever be a positive thing for the country? I can think of only one way. Canada for instance opened its immigration to skilled workers and is refuted in the last five years as an easier entry point to the USA, rather than direct applications from Manila. Little did many people know that the underlying reason why most Filipinos are welcome is because of the fact that they are skilled --- and Canada suffers from BRAIN DRAIN from the United States in the same way as the Philippines has. Skilled Canadian workers migrate south to USA after several years and this create a certain vacuum of skilled service providers in several key sectors.

In effect, Canada's opening up for immigration defers any negative effects of Brain Drain on their labor force, and at the same time receives cheaper labor for their economy.

Brain Drain is not a Filipino Problem

Brain Drain is not a uniquely Filipino problem. It is also a problem between two cities, say Shanghai and Hong Kong, Hongkong and Shenzhen versus New York and Boston, and between one top university and another. It is an economic reality that happens more and more as institutions move from localization to globalized processes.

Brain Drain should be taken not negatively perhaps, but a matter of fact. Population and labor movement in the past decades without citing any statistics can be conceivebably accepted as ever-increasing with the increase of Multinational companies and Outsourced and globalized operations of many companies. The Labor force is now more dynamic as people migrate in and out of countries offering more pay for their services. Take the European Scientists that cloned Dolly for instance, are now working for the Singaporean Government on a grant.

Once job creation is longer be a problem in the Philippines, this same model can be employed to lure the second best workers in Asia to take our lower wages, say the some Chinese, while Filipinos take the higher income wages before they move on elsewhere. Meantime however, while job creation is a probelm, brain drain's effects will remain and should be resolved as a fact, more than a cultural defect.

Labels: Economics

posted by Jdavies @ 10/28/2004, ,

Why the Pulong Bayan Works
8.18.2004

PGMA and our VP Noli has embarked on a program called "Pulong Bayan" which aims to discuss the problems of various sectors through direct consultation with the concerned folk. I have been closely following these program as it seems to me a very positive move, akin to the Magsaysay style of talking directly to the people. You see, I am not a naysayer all the time; when some things are right I tell it, but here's my take why I think the Pulong Bayan works and what might after. In fact Let's do a pseudo-SWOT analysis but let's divide it into S-O and W-T.

Strengths and Opportunities

1. The shaky question of legitimacy of the president is still under attack by the bitter 'losers' of the opposition. Despite a possible mandate from the previous election, a current protest of the FPJ camp is pending in the Supreme Court. The best way to combat this is to show the people that you are a working president. The Pulong Bayan does that as it is covered on TV. Status Quo.
2. Seeing a VP next to the President solves the problem of a VP in the background and doing nothing but waiting for the Prez to die, attacking the prez to fail or rallying same party support to oppose her. By appointing Noli as adviser for OFW affairs GMA has expressly would have said already: Hey Noli, just wait your turn and support me for now, you'll be grateful you did.
3. The Pulong Bayan removes the red tape and quickens the flow and exchange of ideas - department heads mean less now, because their constituents can easily say the problems out loud. Should they foul up, they are caught on TV. They will have to re-adjust and give themselves value not as heads or leaders but as role players now - in a GMA centric government.
4. Notice that the Las Piñas leg of the Pulong bayan has less attendees as the previous one in Laguna. In that 3rd leg of the forum GMA openly castigated 2 government officials - LLDA's chair following a complaint about the redundancy of the application of environmental clearance certificates and the road use tax issue of Gov. Lazaro of Laguna. Both of these officials were embarrassed on national TV. GMA thus is successful in showing a tough attitude that she is here to solve a problem.
5. By answering questions of the people quickly and addressing their concerns in as fast, she is showing that she is an intelligent leader than knows a lot and can do a lot - that increases the hope of people.
6. By not being afraid to be "masungit" on camera and being candid at times and yet not veering away from the main point of the forum: solving the problems, - and letting herself be herself, PGMA draws the line easily who are in and out. The beso-beso gives her some distance - she was right to say give some respect - in fact that is right a beso-beso a social kiss to Filipinos is given to only those in your circle. I think that by doing that she gives back the institution of the presidency a respect that the position deserves.
7. The open forum is a very good way of informing people about virtually unknown projects that the government espouses, or supports. People tend to criticize a lot because they are uninformed.
8. It is a good showcase to watch which officials are quick with decisions and who really makes sense - or which ones are just there for the ride.
9. The meetings shifts the focus from the president to the people around her. Politically this is a good move because if somebody screws up people don't point to you - you point to them. Fall guys are easy to pick. Plus the problems are being made clear - anything identifying and quantifiable can be reached. If our goals as a nation are not clear and measurable, then any progress cannot be charted.
10. It is a very good propaganda tool. See how PGMA delights in moments where she can point out what she knows? There are moments when she need to explain things and government jargon and she delights to be the showman that she knows a lot. That settles the question of her not being able to do any better than the previous president.
11. It is a good move for Noli too because it cements his place as a supporter - a job that works for him because it shows he is doing something, and differentiates him from all other vice presidents in the past. It is a strong position to be the one PGMA will endorse by the time her term ends. And guess who will be next - Mar Roxas as his vice. That means Cory-Ramos-GMA-Noli-Mar 30 years of your the same group of people in power.

Weaknesses and Threats

1. By proving that she has the solutions - and by the way PGMA talks you can see she's got the brain to do it, and the political mind to manipulate people - she has raised the bar of expectations. Anything that is bleak is now clear - failures will be easy to measure and thus it can be easily said if she will fail or not.
2. If the Pulong Bayan will not produce what it promised, you will have many sectors crying ningas-cogon. That it was all a facade, a masquerade.
3. It is obvious that she will clash with a lot of minds here. This process exposes a lot of irregularities very easily. She will have a lot of enemies.
4. People will ask why is showing that what she can do now - what was the past 4 years all about? Why was she not able to do anything back then? Is it because she was busy with her other Pidal concerns - and after ensuring that she is safe now is it time to be a good president? In Tagalog: Bumangka na ba? Nasambot na ba ang puhunan? Questions like these which I hear from my daily conversations with Taxi drivers are easy to raise when we question habit. What exactly are her motives? PGMA needs to be clear or else people will ask more and more questions.
5. Earlier today it was mentioned that one major problem in the Philippines is vocation targeting and skills projection of its manpower. The skill sets of our graduates are not in tune with the demands of the economy - and neither is the quantity of graduates per sector aligned with the demand for the number of jobs available in these sectors. This is very true - the need to align it all. We produce a great number of good graduates who become jobless not because the jobs are not available but because the skills don't match. How many Management graduates do we have and how many entrepreneurs do we produce? Now that this problem is laid out and clear, a possible shift and realignment of policy will be very difficult. She needs a congress that will fully support all the laws required to be change in a change in the system.
6. Her move may put dependence on the government to another level. Next up is you see people needing dole out. The government needs to emphasize on the programs that it can do and the many NGO's that it supports. Take micro-finance for instance, how many people would have known that you can get loans without collateral, as long as you are in a program that teaches you how to pay through it. It's not going to be easy but hey, that's a start.
7. Why is GMA focused on the domestic front now? Well because there is nothing in foreign policy to occupy her. Right now is she is just praying for a Kerry Win. And that's it. The danger side is if Bush wins, it will be a lot of work for her. There is no leverage with America if our economy is shaky, they have no choice but defer to them.

That makes the list a 11-7 in favor of positive things. I'd rather have a +4 than a zero. Good Start, even as it may be questionable, and motivated by other things, I don't think we should complain. Let her do her job - a job she hasn't done as best she could have in the past 4 years. It's time.

Labels: Economics

posted by Jdavies @ 8/18/2004, ,

Urban Legends about Kerry and Bush
8.09.2004

When November comes the world will be at a crossroads - two men, two very different policies. Parallel worlds and alternate realities are never going to be any more real than when America decides who their next president will be. At the periphery of course are billions of people anxiously waiting what will happen to their nations and their lives. The Philippines will not be exempt, in fact I am thinking GMA ultimately desires a Kerry victory. That way, reforging the US-Philippine ties will take less effort, as it will be the theme of the Democrats should they regain power in the White House.

Anyways, going down to business - I have here Urban Legends links about Kerry and Bush - not that you need to decide, coz we all know which one is a madman. More so because we, the people in the periphery of America will know what to expect: (or maybe just for the fun of it anyways)

• Urban Legends about Kerry
• Urban Legends about Bush
  ... via snopes.com (Thank to Bud Tugly of linkfilter)

Below is the hotly circulated resume of George W. Bush: (Snopes says some are fact, some are unverified) but one blogger has some links that may help. This one here compiled a list of links all over the web so that you can verify them on your own. If you are closely following world news and affairs, some will not surprise you - for sure you can say they are true. Still, in fairness to the man, some are exaggerations, or will need to be verified, but most will have some truth in it. Here you go - for your intellectual euphoria:

GEORGE W. BUSH's RESUME

The White House, USA
* ACCOMPLISHMENTS AS PRESIDENT:

• I attacked and took over two countries.
• I spent the U.S. surplus and bankrupted the Treasury.
• I shattered the record for biggest annual deficit in history.
• I set an economic record for most private bankruptcies filed in any 12-month period.
• I set all-time record for biggest drop in the history of the stock market.
• I am the first president in decades to execute a federal prisoner.
• I am the first president in US history to enter office with a criminal
  record.
• In my first year in office I set the all-time record for most days on
  vacation by any president in US history.
• After taking the entire month of August off for vacation, I presided
  over the worst security failure in US history.
• I set the record for most campaign fund raising trips by any president in US history.
• In my first two years in office over 2 million Americans lost their job.
• I cut unemployment benefits for more out-of-work Americans than any other president in US history.
• I set the all-time record for most foreclosures in a 12-month period.
• I appointed more convicted criminals to administration positions than any president in US history.
• I set the record for the fewest press conferences of any president since the advent of TV.
• I signed more laws and executive orders amending the Constitution than any other president in US history.
• I presided over the biggest energy crises in US history and refused to
  intervene when corruption was revealed.
• I presided over the highest gasoline prices in US history and refused to use the national reserves as past presidents have.
• I cut health care benefits for war veterans.
• I set the all-time record for most people worldwide to simultaneously take to the streets to protest me (15 million people), shattering the record for protest against any person in the history of mankind.
• I dissolved more international treaties than any president in US
  history.
• I've made my presidency the most secretive and unaccountable of any in US history.
• Members of my cabinet are the richest of any administration in US
  history. (The 'poorest' multimillionaire, Condoleeza Rice, has a Chevron oil tanker named after her).
• I am the first president in US history to have all 50 states of the
  Union simultaneously go bankrupt.
• I presided over the biggest corporate stock market fraud in any market in any country in the history of the world.
• I am the first president in US history to order a US attack and military occupation of a sovereign nation, and I did so against the will of the United Nations and the world community.
• I have created the largest government department bureaucracy in the history of the United States.
• I set the all-time record for biggest annual budget spending increases, more than any other president in US history.
• I am the first president in US history to have the United Nations remove the US from the Human Rights Commission.
• I am the first president in US history to have the United Nations remove the US from the Elections Monitoring Board.
• I removed more checks and balances, and have the least amount of
  congressional oversight than any presidential administration in US history.
• I rendered the entire United Nations irrelevant.
• I withdrew from the World Court of Law.
• I refused to allow inspectors access to US prisoners of war and by default no longer abide by the Geneva Conventions.
• I am the first president in US history to refuse United Nations election inspectors access during the 2002 US elections.
• I am the all-time US (and world) record holder for most corporate
  campaign donations.
• The biggest lifetime contributor to my campaign, who is also one of my best friends, presided over one of the largest corporate bankruptcy frauds in world history (Kenneth Lay, former CEO of Enron Corporation).
• I spent more money on polls and focus groups than any president in US history.
• I am the first president to run and hide when the US came under attack (and then lied, saying the enemy had the code to Air Force 1)
• I am the first US president to establish a secret shadow
  government.
• I took the world's sympathy for the US after 911, and in less than a year made the US the most resented country in the world (possibly the biggest diplomatic failure in US and world history).
• I am the first US president in history to have a majority of the people of Europe (71%) view my presidency as the biggest threat to world peace and stability.
• I am the first US president in history to have the people of South Korea more threatened by the US than by their immediate neighbor, North Korea.
• I changed US policy to allow convicted criminals to be awarded government contracts.
• I set the all-time record for number of administration appointees who
  violated US law by not selling their huge investments in corporations bidding for gov't contracts.
• I have removed more freedoms and civil liberties for Americans than any other president in US history. In a little over two years I have created the most divided country in decades, possibly the most divided that the US has been since the civil war.
• I entered office with the strongest economy in US history and in less than two years turned every single economic category heading straight down.

RECORDS AND REFERENCES:

• I have at least one conviction for drunk driving in Maine (Texas
  driving record has been erased and is not available).
• I was AWOL from the National Guard and deserted the military during a time of war.
• I refuse to take a drug test or even answer any questions about drug
  use.
• All records of my tenure as governor of Texas have been spirited away to my father¹s library, sealed in secrecy and unavailable for public view.
• All records of any SEC investigations into my insider trading or bankrupt companies are sealed in secrecy and unavailable for public view.
• All minutes of meetings of any public corporation for which I served on the board are sealed in secrecy and unavailable for public view.
• Any records or minutes from meetings I (or my VP) attended regarding public energy policy are sealed in secrecy and unavailable for public review.

PERSONAL REFERENCES:

• For personal references, please speak to my dad or uncle James Baker (They can be reached in their offices at the Carlyle Group where they are helping to divide up the spoils of the US-Iraq war and plan for the next one.)

Labels: Economics, Politics, US Politics

posted by Jdavies @ 8/09/2004, ,

The 2004 Democratic Party Platform
7.26.2004

Labels: Economics, Politics, US Politics

posted by Jdavies @ 7/26/2004, ,

Media says US has bowed down to terrorists before
7.22.2004

Labels: Economics, Politics

posted by Jdavies @ 7/22/2004, ,

What is Econopolitik ?
6.28.2004

I'd like to create a word for my own use, and perhaps for others use as well. You know sometimes some words are just not enough to contain what you mean, or are not colorful enough to highlight what you need to say. That word is Econopolitik. (Mass Noun, Abstract, must be used Sparringly as it has a negative connotation, but may be used quite possitively under certain occasions)

It's a coined term that is: The root words are economics and politick. I dropped the 'c' because I thought it most economical ;-), and differentiated from the original word. It also gives it a Russian(?) feel, which gives it a certain KGB - CIA bureaucracy kick. (Tolly says it's German)

I like it to define one's cache of beliefs that predisposes one's political biases toward what is most economically feasible and most beneficial to a particular political agenda. Politics, politicking, or Politick does not quite capture the essence of Econopolitik. (Which can be written as econo-politik, depends on whether you want to highlight the economic side of any political decision or not) ;-)

I seriously believe it is timely, and most appropriate to give birth to such a word right now. It's the zeitgeist. While technology and media ever-increasingly affect the manner of feedback and communication, and the speed by which information and news and it's dissemination is much faster than can be verified, the potential for making an unpopular political decision has reach a threshold, wherein any action, or lack thereof, or delay, can be interpreted in so many ways, and therefore too volatile, that politicians will choose to defer action rather than risk getting any feedback.

That is to say decision makers: modern politicians, business leaders, managers included, have their careers on the line. Never has there been a point in history, (as far as a non-historian like me is concerned) that their minds been put under such tremendous pressure.

At the same time, having such careers at risk of being cut short immediately by popularity, acceptance, and peer standards, among other circumstances, these decision makers will decide on the basis of pratical economy and political gain. This includes personal economic, or political gain or a combination of both.

In the heirarchy of words I would consider this word that I created to be above graft and corruption, or political strategem, or political misdirection and disinformation. As it represents a certain bias, without necessarily degrading the DO-er of the action, Econopolitik becomes a philosophy that would have defined the actions of 21st Century business leaders, politicians and even institution leaders as well. It must be differentiated from a Machiavellian decision, or any other sort. This is because econopolitik focuses on the practicality of any action, or inaction, in the expectation of a continued benefit, or continued experience of being able to exercise the same at a later date, or that is to say, to be able to retain the power to execute the same decision.

Econopolitik is amoral. One's cache may contain one's morality or not, but in the end, the decision is made on the basis of being able to sustain the power to exercise the option. In business, it maybe best to describe as the belief system of a CEO's decision to sack a fallguy for a quarter slump, in order to satisfy the Board; a team owner's decision to trade a good aging player even at his prime and even against popular concern; or a President's decision to avoid raising residential taxes because it is unpopular. Under ALL three examples there is - 1: Pressure to Decide, 2. Gain or Loss involved, and 3: A disregard for a party in the decision, either oneself, popular opinion or a party to be affected by the action Such actions can be deliberate, and are done only on economical and political grounds. There is no ethics in deciding whether it is right or wrong. The only question is whether the decision is economically or politically timely or not.

People who want to understand Bush and why he invaded Iraq and why now need not go far, there is a word for that: Econopolitik/Econo-politik. You want to have a word about why GMA delayed using her economic know-how when she had her 4 years available to her? It's her Econopolitik that stopped her. These are the more obvious ones.

Now, please. use "econopolitik" in a sentence. I'm sure you will not fail to have a use for one. It's a crazy econopolitik world we live in.

Labels: Economics

posted by Jdavies @ 6/28/2004, ,

Non-Citizens Capture 29 Percent of U.S. Jobs, Report Says
6.21.2004

From Bloomberg: Employment for non-citizens rose twice as fast as their overall population did, which may affect voter perceptions of the improving U.S. economy, said Rakesh Kochhar, an economist who wrote the report using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau.

How significant is this figure in a first world economy? We have to go back to the mass immigration during the 1900s to understand this. Between 1870 and 1900, nearly 12 million immigrants arrived in the United States -- more foreign-born people than had come to the country in the preceding 70 years. Is it a boon or bane?

Expect this figure to come up as an issue. If you are pro-Bush, you'll take this as a positive sign that the US economy is on it's way back up. You will try to hide the fact that once, Bush dreaded that American Jobs will get siphoned off by the Chinese. You will also attempt to highlight that the figure represents how equal opportunity is America is providing better lives for most. At the same time, you will be careful not to antagonize the WASPs and the conservatives, which believes that Americans should get mor of that percentage.

Imagine if you are on the other side of campaign? In the Philippines where turncoatism is quite common in Congress, will this job be too difficult? I think so.

Think about this: In the past, the Philippines has experience a statistical surprise albeit in reverse: when 1 of every 4 Filipinos want to get out of the country. The beaurocracy handled it in the most distasteful manner, that it became a national concern. They fanned the flames by admitting to the truth of it, without getting enough figures to see how much of these peole would want to return after they leave.

You see, one must understand that the Filipino psyche is filled with responsibility toward his family. Such is repeated nonstop through his education, his growth, by his peers, and through media, that in the end, he catches enough strength to take whatever risk. Instead of focusing on the most significant aspect of the culture, for instance, "what reasons the Filipino has in his heart to take a bold step abroad", the beaurocracy thus, failed in bringing a positive side to the news.

Labels: Culture, Economics, Philippines

posted by Jdavies @ 6/21/2004, ,

More On Bush's State of Mind

While everyone is commenting on Sassy's about the Bush's alledged paranoia, there are some who think that his mind should not be of consequence or concern of someone like me or others from several thousand miles away.Conrad wrote:

Any medical professional who purports to diagnose someone he has never even met ought to have his license revoked. And does someone from the Philippines really want to be questioning the capabilities of another country’s leaders?

Posted by Conrad on 06-21-04 at 03:33 PM

Think about it, the Philippines has it's own problems, and it's got its own dose of leaders who maybe whack. So it would seem like logical that we leave it to be 'to each his own', right? Wrong! Domestic policy in Manila is shaped by its foreign policy. Our trade imbalance, oil price dependence, remittance-driven economy with a large beaurocratic policies that follows US as its main trading partner is the real reason why Filipinos have to care about Dubya like he is our on president.

The actions of the president of the most powerful nation on earth has to be consistently monitored. We cannot pretend nothing is happening, Remember: The only thing good have to do for evil to triumph is "nothing". Terrorism has to stop, but Bush needs to clean up his act and make sure he doesn't make new enemies while he trods on other people's backyards.

Labels: Economics, Politics, US Politics

posted by Jdavies @ 6/21/2004, ,

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